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传统平均温度法往往无法表征极端温度事件对作物产量的作用,导致气候变化对产量影响的评估结果与实际情况存在较大偏差。鉴于此,论文提出了温度三区间理论。该理论基于作物生长发育各阶段的生物量指标以及最终产量随温度变化呈现出三区间的响应关系,分别评价正常温度、极端低温以及极端高温对产量的影响。为了验证温度三区间理论的科学性和可行性,论文以黑龙江省玉米为例,通过构建包括三区间积温指标和降水量指标的统计模型来评价气候变化对玉米单产的影响,并将此结果和平均温度法相比较,研究发现温度三区间评价法更能客观全面地评价气候变化对作物产量的影响,为这方面的研究提供了新思路。
The traditional average temperature method often fails to characterize the effects of extreme temperature events on crop yield, resulting in large deviations from the actual assessment of the impact of climate change on yields. In view of this, the paper presents the theory of temperature three intervals. The theory based on crop growth and development of biomass indicators and the final yield with temperature showed a three-zone response relationship were evaluated normal temperature, extreme low temperature and extreme high temperature on the yield impact. In order to verify the scientific and feasibility of temperature three-section theory, the paper takes Heilongjiang Province corn as an example to evaluate the impact of climate change on yield per unit area of maize through constructing a statistical model including three indicators of area temperature and precipitation, and comparing the result with Compared with the average temperature method, the study found that the three-zone temperature evaluation method can objectively and comprehensively evaluate the impact of climate change on crop yield, providing a new idea for the research in this field.