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本文针对辽河油田荣３７块天然气藏（井）的生产动态预测中，生产数据的离散状态及不均衡的实际，较完整、系统地介绍了所引入的几个使用效果好，拟合精度高的一般灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型及为解决油气田（井）生产过程中因关井、生产间断、或因工程上的与地质上的原因生产出现随机性急剧变化而引入两个改进的ＧＭ（１，１）模型非等间距和阶跃模型。通过几种模型特征的分析对比及在辽河油田荣３７块全气藏及气井的动态拟合预测使用实践表明，这些模型使用方便迅速，拟合效果好、精度高，尤其是引入的两个改进的ＧＭ（１，１）模型在解决气井停产缺少记录，或者因产量波动数据出现急增剧降而得到不等间距的数据系列与突升、突降的数据处理时，得到了令人满意的结果，为油气田（井）的生产动态拟合提供了新的可供选择的灰色预测模型，弥补了过去拟合预测中方法单一，拟合效果不甚理想的缺陷。
In this paper, according to the prediction of the production dynamic of the 37 natural gas reservoirs (wells) in Liaohe Oilfield, the discretization status and unbalanced production data are more complete and systematically introduced. General GM (1,1) model of gray system and the introduction of two improved GM (1,1) models to solve the problem of rapid change of randomness due to shut-in, production discontinuity or due to engineering and geology in the production process of oil and gas fields (1,1) model of non-equidistance and step model. Through the comparison and analysis of the characteristics of several models and the dynamic fitting prediction of 37 full reservoirs and gas wells in Ronghe Oilfield, Liaohe Oilfield, the practice shows that these models are easy to use, good fitting effect and high precision, especially the two introduced The GM (1,1) model is satisfactory when dealing with the lack of records of shutdown of production wells or the data series of unequal spacing due to sharp increase and decrease of production fluctuation data. As a result, a new gray prediction model is provided for the production dynamic fitting of oil and gas fields (wells), which makes up for the flaws in the past when the method was single and the fitting result was not satisfactory.