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根据江苏省1990-2011年的历史数据,运用VAR模型对江苏省金融发展、财政支出与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明,金融发展、财政支出与经济增长存在双向因果关系,二者与经济增长之间存在长期交互关系,经过脉冲响应分析和方差分解显示:短期内,江苏省金融发展对经济增长呈现负的冲击,财政支出对经济增长影响不明显,长期内,二者对经济增长呈现明显的正向冲击,金融发展、财政支出对经济增长的平均贡献率分别为17%和25%.并据此结论提出相应的建议.
According to the historical data of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2011, we use VAR model to analyze the relationship between financial development, financial expenditure and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. The results show that there is a two-way causal relationship between financial development, financial expenditure and economic growth. There is a long-term interaction between economic growth. After the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, it shows that in the short term, the financial development in Jiangsu Province has a negative impact on economic growth, while the financial expenditure has no obvious effect on economic growth. In the long run, Showing a significant positive impact, the average contribution rate of financial development and financial expenditure to economic growth was 17% and 25% respectively, and the corresponding conclusions were put forward accordingly.