为解决企业合理发放养老金,避免企业养老基金出现赤字,利用时间序列和矩阵理论将投资利率为可逆MA(1),MA(2)模型推广为MA(q)模型和条件ARMA(q)模型,得到缴费预定型企业年金保险中相应利率下的生存年金的1阶矩和2阶矩,由此可确定发放企业养老金的均值和方差. In order to solve the problem of the enterprise issuing the pension rationally and avoiding the deficit of the enterprise pension fund, the MA (q) model and the ARMA (q) model are generalized using the time series and the matrix theory when the investment interest rate is reversible. , We get the first moment and the second moment of the living annuity under the corresponding interest rates in the subscription annuity insurance, so we can determine the mean and variance of the annulment of the enterprise.