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10月以来,PTA期货价格相对其他商品表现稍强,尤其是10月底甲醇、PP等化工品再创年内新低时,PTA却明显抗跌。究其原因,笔者认为,市场库存压力不大,供给偏紧对PTA价格形成了明显支撑。但是下游聚酯行业压力较大,产业链矛盾难以化解,预期PTA价格上行空间有限,PTA1601合约在4800元/吨面临技术性压力。供给依然偏紧,短期利多PTA4月以来,国内PTA行业开工率基本在70%以下运行,尤其是7月至今的平均开工率只有
Since October, the price of PTA futures has been slightly stronger than that of other commodities. Especially when the chemicals such as methanol, PP and other chemicals hit another record low during the year, the PTA is obviously defensive. The reason, I believe that the pressure on the market inventory is not tight, the tight supply of PTA prices formed a clear support. However, downstream polyester industry pressure, the industrial chain is difficult to resolve the contradictions, expected PTA price upside is limited, PTA1601 contract at 4800 yuan / ton to face technical pressure. Supply is still tight, short-term profits PTA4 months since, the domestic PTA industry operating rate is basically below 70% of the operation, especially in July since the average operating rate only