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随着生产发展,我区晚稻面积不断扩大,产量逐年上升。但由于各年气象条件的差异,晚稻产量年际间波动较大,比早稻更不稳定。本文根据晚稻生育对气象条件的要求,建立全区晚稻产量的中、短期农业气象预报模式。考虑到资料来源和服务方便,采用行政分区,先分别建立八个地区的预报模式,在此基础上,组成全区的预报模式。回代及试报结果较好。一、资料来源及产量处理方法产量采用各地区及全区晚稻平均亩产,面积及产量资料抄自区统计局;每地区选择一个代表站的气象资料,资料年限为1966—1982年。
With the development of production, the area of late rice in our region has been continuously expanded and the output has been increasing year by year. However, due to the difference of meteorological conditions in different years, the yield of late rice fluctuates greatly from year to year, which is more unstable than that of early rice. Based on the requirement of meteorological conditions for late rice breeding, this paper establishes the mode of agricultural meteorological forecast of late rice yield in the whole region. Taking into account the data source and service convenience, the use of administrative divisions, the first set up eight regional forecasting model, on this basis, the composition of the forecast model. Back to the generation and trial results are better. I. Sources and Methods of Production Output The average yield per mu, area and yield of late rice in each region and region is copied from the Bureau of Statistics; the meteorological data of one representative station is selected for each region, with the data of 1966-1982.