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本文首次于1977年5月发表于《财富》杂志,在目前环境中,随着人们对未来通胀预期的升温,重读此文,重温巴菲特思想的火花,相信当代投资者仍将能从中受益。巴菲特认为,就经济本质而言,股票和债券事实上非常相似,股票不过是穿着股票的外衣来到华尔街化装舞会的“股本债券”。由于股票的本质与债券非常相似,股票受通胀的影响也非常大。通胀转移富裕股东的收入来改善工人福利的潜力并不大。要想产生更多的经济福利,就需要大幅增加实际资本,并且投资在现代生产设施中。此外,通胀影响实际资本积累,部分企业派息后业务扩张资金所剩无几,企业在派息与增发新股之间游戏,最终受伤的还是投资者。通胀对企业回报率的影响有普遍性,但需要大量有形资产支出来维持经营的企业往往会受通胀伤害较大;需要较少有形资产支出的企业受伤害程度较小;经济商誉高的企业受到的伤害也较小……
This article was first published in Fortune Magazine in May 1977. In the current environment, as people anticipate the future inflationary expectation, reread this article and review the spark of Buffett’s thought, I believe contemporary investors will still benefit from it. Buffett believes that, in terms of the economic nature, stocks and bonds are in fact very similar, but the stock is nothing more than “stock bonds” on the Wall Street fancy dress in stock jerseys. Because the nature of the stock is very similar to the bond, the impact of inflation on the stock is also very large. The potential for inflation to divert wealthy shareholders ’income to improve workers’ welfare is modest. To generate more economic benefits requires a substantial increase in real capital and investment in modern production facilities. In addition, the impact of inflation on the actual accumulation of capital, part of the business after the dividend business expansion funds left few, companies pay dividends and new shares in the game between the final injury or investors. Inflation has a general impact on the rate of return on the enterprise. However, enterprises that need a large amount of physical asset expenditures to maintain their business tend to suffer greater damage from inflation; those that require less physical asset to pay are less vulnerable; those with high economic goodwill The damage suffered is also small ......