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截至2004年11月20日,我国进出口贸易总额历史性地突破了1万亿美元,预计在全球贸易大国排序中,我国将有望超过日本,名列世界第三位。2005年,我国对外贸易仍具备继续增长的基本条件,其有利因素主要是世界经济和国内经济增长较快,国际投资开始活跃,中国以“加工贸易”为特征的制造业高速发展。不利因素则是由于原油价格居高不下,全球通胀压力趋升,世界经济增速将较2004年减缓。另外,我国的外部发展环境比2004年趋紧,贸易摩擦将持续增加,而美元汇率的走势也会对我国进出口产生一定影响。综合各类因素,我国2005年外贸增速预计约为15%—20%。
As of November 20, 2004, the total volume of China’s import and export has historically exceeded 1 trillion U.S. dollars. It is estimated that in the ranking of the major global trading nations, China will surpass Japan and rank third in the world. In 2005, China’s foreign trade still possessed the basic conditions for continued growth. The favorable factors are mainly the rapid growth of the world economy and the domestic economy, the start-up of international investment, and the rapid development of the manufacturing industry characterized by “processing trade” in China. The unfavorable factor is due to the high crude oil prices and rising global inflationary pressure, the world economic growth will slow down from 2004. In addition, the external development environment in our country is tighter than in 2004, the trade friction will continue to increase, and the trend of the U.S. dollar exchange rate will also have an impact on China’s import and export. Based on various factors, the growth rate of China’s foreign trade in 2005 is estimated to be about 15% -20%.