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解读当前中国经济下行马骏:当前,关于经济下行的争论中主要有两派观点。一派认为,这轮经济下行主要是结构性的。其中影响最大的结构性因素是人口红利消失,引起出口竞争力下降,使经济增长潜力下了一个台阶。而且人口红利消失的影响可以长达几十年,因此这轮减速后经济很难反弹,经济增长将是L形。对此,不应该推出刺激政策,因为不仅无效,还会造成更大的产能过剩。另一派观点认为,此轮经济下行主要是周期性的,目前的增长低于潜力,今后会有反弹。因此政府就有必要稍微帮一把,这样可以避免在低谷持续过长的时间,从而导致企业利润长期低迷、失业和社会不稳定。
Interpretation of the current Chinese economy Ma Jun: At present, there are mainly two views on the economic downturn. One group believes that this round of economic downturn is mainly structural. The most significant structural factor is the disappearance of the demographic dividend, which has led to a decline in export competitiveness and brought the economic growth potential to a higher level. And the impact of the demographic dividend disappearing can last as long as several decades. Therefore, it is hard for the economy to rebound after this round of decelerations, and its economic growth will be L-shaped. In this regard, the stimulus should not be introduced because not only is it ineffective, it can also lead to greater overcapacity. Another view is that the current round of economic downturn is mainly cyclical. The current growth is below its potential and there will be a rebound in the future. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to help it a bit. This will prevent any prolonged period of low tide which will lead to long-term corporate downturn, unemployment and social instability.