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本研究系统地处理了１９８７ 年至１９９７ 年云南地区２３ 个水氡观测点的水氡观测数据。为了突出短临异常， 寻找水氡短临预报指标， 数据处理方法采用日均值一阶差分法，使用差分平稳序列的３ 倍均方差作为异常判据。得到了云南地区水氡日差分异常台项月本底值为４ 台项， 水氡日差分异异常数月本底值为７ 次， 明确提出了预报３ 个月内云南地区５级以上地震的短临预报指标， 给出了其对应地震关系， 其中对应率和概括率均为７０ ％ 左右。同时全面地统计出了省内２３ 个水氡观测台站的单台异常映震能力。
This study systematically processed water radon observation data of 23 water radon observation points from 1987 to 1997 in Yunnan. In order to highlight the short-term anomaly and find the short-term forecast index of water radon, the data processing method uses the first-order difference method of daily mean value, and uses the mean square error of three times of the differential stationary sequence as the abnormal criterion. The monthly background value of the daily differential anomalies of water radon in Yunnan is 4 and the monthly background of the daily average of radon variability anomalies is 7 times. It is clear that the prediction of earthquakes with magnitude 5 or above in Yunnan within 3 months Short-term forecast indicator, given its corresponding earthquake relationship, of which the correspondence rate and generalization rate are about 70%. At the same time, a comprehensive statistics of the province's 23 water radon observation station single anomaly seismic capacity.