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为解决现有安全管理在事故致因因素识别及管理资源分配等方面模糊的问题,引入博德事故因果连锁理论分析事故发展过程,以确定事故管控的主要环节及具体对象,并运用图示评审技术(GERT)构建地下硐室群施工安全事故管控模型。以坍塌事故为例,求解资源分配最优状况下事故管控成功的概率及时间期望。结果表明,通过预估安全管理对事故管控各坏节的作用系数,可确定上述管控模型的参数,进而运用该模型能优化安全管理资源分配,依据模型结果可评估施工安全事故的管控效率。
In order to solve the obscure problem of the existing safety management in the identification of accident causal factors and the management of resource allocation, the Bode accident causal chain theory was introduced to analyze the accident development process to determine the main aspects and specific objects of accident management and control and to use the graphic review Technology (GERT) to Construct Control and Management Model for Construction Accident of Underground Chamber. Taking the collapse accident as an example, the probability and time expectation of accident management and control under the optimal resource allocation condition are solved. The results show that the parameters of the management and control model can be determined by predicting the effect of safety management on the accident control and control of each bad section. The model can be used to optimize the safety management of resource allocation. Based on the model results, the control efficiency of construction safety accidents can be evaluated.