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根据国家宏观调控政策和我国宏观经济波动规律的分析与判断,以及对我国宏观经济潜在运行能力及实际经济潜力在运行能力偏离的分析,通过总结我国历史上历次经济循环规律,我们预期目前我国经济周期收缩期将在1995年12月达底谷,1996年开始新的一轮扩张,大约在1998年下半年达到景气高峰。从而预期1994～2000年我国经济历年发展速度为11%,8%,8%,9%,10%,9%,8%;年均增长率为9.5%,我国钢材消费时的波动与国民经济
According to the analysis and judgment of the national macro-control policy and the law of macro-economic fluctuations in our country, and the analysis of the deviation of the operational capacity and actual economic potential of the macroeconomy in our country from the operational capacity, we conclude that the current economic cycle in our country The cyclical systolic phase will reach the bottom valley in December 1995 and a new round of expansion in 1996, reaching its peak in about the second half of 1998. Thus it is expected that the economic growth rates of our country will be 11%, 8%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 9% and 8% over the years from 1994 to 2000 with an average annual growth rate of 9.5%. The fluctuation of consumption of steel in our country and the national economy