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In this study,two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode(MJO) are found in the summer season(persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active),and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes.They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons:When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer,El Nino events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year.However,during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean,La Nina events often follow instead.The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation,and results in wind stress anomalies.The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean.The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.
In this study, two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode (MJO) are found in the summer season (persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active), and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes.They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons: When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer, El Nino events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year. the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean, La Nina events often follow instead.The. Analysis of the atmospheric circulation theory indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation, and results in wind stress anomalies. the wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water mass which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean. the accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in th e Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.