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对黄河下游的断流情况进行了回顾分析和评价，对断流的成因作了较全面的分析；在此基础上，依据利津断面的分阶段最长断流历时（天数），建立了数学预测模型，对2000年水平及今后一个时期的黄河断流趋势进行了预测。
Based on this, the mathematical prediction was established based on the longest cut-off time (number of days) in stages of Lijin section. Based on this, a comprehensive analysis was made on the causes of the cutoff. Model predicts the trend of the Yellow River cutoff in the year 2000 and in the coming period.