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白洋淀是华北平原最大的湖泊湿地,对维持华北平原生态平衡具有极其重要的作用。近年来,白洋淀流域水源减少已经引起了严重的生态环境问题,本文以唐河上游流域为例,根据流域内1960-2008年水文气象数据,采用气候弹性系数和水文模拟方法,研究了气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流量的影响。结果表明:年径流下降趋势显著,下降速率为1.7mm/a,且径流在1980年前后发生了突变;气候变化对唐河上游流域径流减少的贡献率为38%~40%,人类活动对径流的减少起主导作用,为60%~62%。为维持白洋淀的生态功能,必须保证一定的最小生态需水量,开展湿地生态用水调度与监管。
Baiyangdian Lake is the largest lake wetland in the North China Plain and plays an extremely important role in maintaining the ecological balance of the North China Plain. In recent years, the reduction of water resources in Baiyangdian basin has caused serious ecological problems. Taking the upper reaches of the Tanghe River as an example, according to hydrological and meteorological data from 1960 to 2008 in the basin, the climate elasticity and hydrological simulation are used to study the effects of climate change and Impact of Human Activities on Runoff in the Upper Reaches of Baiyangdian Lake. The results showed that annual runoff decreased significantly, the rate of decline was 1.7mm / a, and the runoff changed suddenly before and after 1980. The contribution of climate change to the runoff in the upper reaches of the Tanghe River was 38% ~ 40% The decrease plays a leading role, accounting for 60% ~ 62%. In order to maintain the ecological function of Baiyangdian Lake, we must ensure a certain minimum ecological water demand and carry out the regulation and regulation of the ecological water use in wetlands.