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本文运用1978-2008年的数据,研究了中国产业结构、经济增长等因素与煤炭消费的关系,发现它们之间存在协整关系;模拟和预测发现,如果中国GDP增长率下降到8%或以下,则煤炭消费量在2020年前后会自动下降;现有产业结构和经济增长速度过快的负面效应过大,不可持续;过多煤炭消费导致碳排放过高,煤电关系紧张,矿难事故频发等问题;按照2008年煤炭开采量与储量计算,在其他条件不变的情况下,不到2050年,中国将无煤可采。本文提出,中国应降低重工业在工业中的比重,提高服务业在GDP中的比重,摒弃过分追求8%或更高国民经济增长速度的片面做法。
Using 1978-2008 data, this paper studies the relationship between China’s industrial structure, economic growth and coal consumption and finds that there is a co-integration relationship between them. The simulation and forecasting find that if China’s GDP growth rate drops to 8% or below , The coal consumption will automatically decline before and after 2020; the negative effect of the existing industrial structure and excessive economic growth will be too large and unsustainable; excessive coal consumption will lead to excessive carbon emissions, tight coal-electricity relations and frequency of mining accidents Hair and other issues; calculated in accordance with the 2008 coal mining and reserves, in other conditions remain unchanged, less than 2050, China will be coal recoverable. This paper suggests that China should reduce the proportion of heavy industry in industry, increase the proportion of service industry in GDP, and abandon the one-sided practice of excessively pursuing the rate of national economic growth of 8% or more.