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可靠性及剩余寿命分析是基于状态的系统维护(CBM)的基础,具有重要的指导意义。目前对部件级寿命预测的研究比较成熟,但对系统级寿命预测的研究甚少。本文基于动态故障树对动量轮备份系统进行可靠性及寿命预测分析,对现有文献中备份部件失效概率密度的描述方法进行了改进,以满足当t→∞时累积失效概率和等于1,并将改进后的部件失效概率密度描述方法结合离散时间贝叶斯网络(DTBN)对备份门的求解进行了分析。最后,以动量轮备份系统为实例进行可靠性及寿命预测分析。
Reliability and Residual Life Analysis is the basis for state-based system maintenance (CBM), which is of great guiding importance. At present, the research on component level life prediction is relatively mature, but little research has been done on system level life prediction. In this paper, based on the dynamic fault tree, the reliability and life prediction of the momentum wheel backup system is analyzed. The description of the failure probability density of backup components in the existing literature is improved to meet the cumulative failure probability equal to 1 when t → ∞. The improved method to describe the failure probability density of components is combined with the discrete-time Bayesian Networks (DTBN) to analyze the solution of the backup gates. Finally, take the momentum wheel backup system as an example to predict the reliability and life expectancy.