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目的探讨自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)乘积季节模型在手足口病预测中的应用,对手足口病的月发病数进行趋势预测。方法收集南昌市2009年1月至2012年12月手足口病的月发病数资料建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,并对预测结果进行评价。结果在手足口病预测中建立ARIMA乘积季节模型的最优模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)×(1,1,0)12模型,正态化的BIC为(贝叶斯信息准测)12.31。结论建立的ARIMA模型能较好地拟合和预测南昌市手足口病的月发病数,为手足口病的防治提供参考依据。
Objective To investigate the application of autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) product seasonal model in the prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and predict the monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). Methods The monthly incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease in Nanchang from January 2009 to December 2012 were collected to establish the seasonal model of ARIMA products, and the prediction results were evaluated. Results The optimal model for ARIMA product seasonal model was ARIMA (0,1,1) × (1,1,0) 12 model. The normalized BIC was (Bayesian information) 12.31. Conclusion The established ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of HFMD in Nanchang and provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of HFMD.