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作者应用多重回归法和噬菌体技术对水稻白叶枯病的发生流行趋势的预测作了研究。结果表明:(1)根据始病前两旬降水量≥0.1毫米日数和越冬期(12月至2月)三个月的日平均气温,可以预测田间始病期,(2)在水稻生育期内测定稻田水中噬菌体量,并根据病害流行前两旬连续三次测定噬菌体累计量、降水量和降水量≥10毫米日数等可预测水稻后期病害的流行趋势。同时分析了影响病害流行的主导因素(降水量≥10毫米日数和噬菌体量)及建立了多重回归预测模式。
The authors applied multiple regression and phage techniques to predict the prevalence of bacterial blight in rice. The results showed as follows: (1) According to the mean daily temperature of ≥0.1 mm and the wintering period (December to February) of three months before the onset of illness, the onset period in the field could be predicted. (2) The phage quantity in paddy field water was determined and the phage cumulative amount, precipitation and precipitation ≥ 10 mm days were determined three times in the first two days of the epidemic. At the same time, the dominant factors affecting the pandemic (precipitation ≥10 mm days and phage quantity) were analyzed and a multiple regression prediction model was established.