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收集北京市某三级甲等医院2009-2011年的传染病和寄生虫病的急诊就诊资料19 772例,在相关分析的基础上,利用半参数的广义相加模型进行拟合,并对气温进行分段研究.发现不同气温段的气象要素对急诊就诊人数的影响不同.平均气温低于5℃时,气温、气压与急诊就诊人数的关系并不显著(P>0.1);平均气温介于5~13℃时,气温每升高1℃,相对危险度为1.032(95%置信区间:1.01,1.06),急诊就诊人数增加3.166%(95%置信区间:0.516%,5.887%);平均气温高于13℃时,气温每升高1℃,相对危险度为1.013(95%置信区间:1.005,1.021),急诊就诊人数增加1.301%(95%置信区间:0.518%,2.091%).得出结论,气温对传染病与寄生虫病具有显著影响,不同气温时就诊人数的增加速率不同,且不同气温区间其他要素的影响也不同.
A total of 19 772 cases of infectious diseases and parasitic diseases were collected from a tertiary care hospital in Beijing in 2009-2011. On the basis of the correlation analysis, the semi-parametric generalized additive model was used for fitting, and the temperature And found that the meteorological elements in different temperature segments had different effects on the number of emergency attendance.When the average air temperature was below 5 ℃, the relationship between temperature and air pressure was not significant (P> 0.1); the average temperature was between The relative risk was 1.032 (95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.06) for every 1 ℃ increase in temperature from 5 ℃ to 13 ℃. The number of emergency visits increased by 3.166% (95% CI: 0.516%, 5.887% Above 13 ° C, the relative risk for each increase of 1 ° C was 1.013 (95% confidence interval: 1.005, 1.021) and the number of emergency visits increased by 1.301% (95% confidence interval: 0.591%, 2.091%). Conclusions: Temperature has a significant impact on infectious diseases and parasitic diseases. The rates of increase in the number of visits vary with different temperatures, and the effects of other factors in different temperature ranges are also different.