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在分析三江平原典型沼泽性河流挠力河径流演变特征及趋势的基础上,应用灰色关联分析和径向基函数网络等方法,探讨了引起径流量减少和发生突变的原因。分析结果表明:当地河川径流演化与沼汗化流域的地理特征以及近50年来沼泽及沼泽化土地的大规模开垦和水资源的开发利用有密切的关系,人类活动是本区河川径流演变的主要驱动力。气候变化在径流演变中所起的作用相应减少。沼泽湿地对区域水系统的水量平衡产生着重要的影响,在流域下垫面已明显变化,水文循环出现变异的情况下,必须加强沼泽湿地保护的水的调控和管理。
Based on the analysis of the evolution characteristics and trend of runoff in the Naolihe River, a typical marsh river in the Sanjiang Plain, the causes of runoff reduction and occurrence of sudden runoff are discussed by means of gray relational analysis and radial basis function network. The results show that: the local river runoff evolution and the marsh basin of the geographical features and the past 50 years marsh and swamp land reclamation and water resources development and utilization are closely related to human activity is the main river runoff evolution in this area Driving force. The role of climate change in the evolution of runoff is correspondingly reduced. Swamp wetlands have an important impact on the water balance of regional water systems. Under the condition that the underlying surface of the watershed has obviously changed and the hydrological cycle has changed, the regulation and management of water protected by marsh wetlands must be strengthened.