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通过对晚明中国的具体历史环境的考察,尤其是对当时面临货币冲击的初始制度条件的分析,本文试图就中国和西欧之间的“大分叉”进行解释。我们的基本猜想是,中国传统官僚制度中固有的产权保护因素,一方面削弱了制度创新的激励,另一方面又使得产权保护处于高度的不稳定之中。在这样的背景下,引发经济长期增长的货币金融制度之产生,也就无从谈起。由此引申出的命题是,历史上的外部突发事件在深度、广度和方向上对某一“行政—司法—关税”辖区制度变迁或制度创新的影响力,在相当意义上取决于该辖区初始制度状态对外部冲击的敏感性。
Through the investigation of the specific historical environment of late Ming China, especially the analysis of the initial institutional conditions facing the currency shock at that time, this article attempts to explain the “big fork” between China and Western Europe. Our basic conjecture is that the inherent property protection factors inherent in the traditional Chinese bureaucracy have weakened the incentives for institutional innovation on the one hand, and have left the protection of property rights at a high level of instability on the other. Under such a background, it is impossible to talk about the emergence of a monetary and financial system that will lead to long-term economic growth. The proposition to be derived from this is that the influence of historical external contingencies in the depth, breadth and direction on the institutional change or institutional innovation of an “administrative-judicial-customs” jurisdiction depends, in a significant sense, on The initial regime of the jurisdiction is sensitive to external shocks.