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目的探讨广州地区主要的大气污染物(NO2、PM10和SO2)与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊人次的关系。方法通过广州市环境保护局和广州某医院分别获得2005年1月1日—2011年12月31日大气污染物(NO2、PM10、SO2)的日均浓度资料和儿科呼吸系统疾病日门诊人次资料,采用分布滞后线性模型分析大气NO2、PM10、SO2对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊人次的影响。结果大气NO2、PM10和SO2浓度对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊人次的滞后效应可持续至15 d。大气NO2、PM10、SO2浓度每升高10μg/m3对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊人次影响的累积效应在0~30 d时均有统计学意义(P<0.05),且均于15 d达到最大值(NO2:RR=1.029 2,95%CI:1.024 6~1.033 8;PM10:RR=1.020 4,95%CI:1.016 4~1.024 5;SO2:RR=1.040 8,95%CI:1.032 5~1.049 1)。结论广州大气NO2、PM10、SO2浓度的升高可能会造成15 d内儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人次的增加。
Objective To explore the relationship between major atmospheric pollutants (NO2, PM10 and SO2) and outpatient visits of children with respiratory diseases in Guangzhou area. Methods The data of daily average concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, PM10, SO2) from Jan. 1, 2005 to Dec. 31, 2011 were collected by Guangzhou Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau and a hospital in Guangzhou respectively, and the number of outpatient visits per day of pediatric respiratory diseases , The distributed lag linear model was used to analyze the influence of atmospheric NO2, PM10 and SO2 on the outpatient visits of pediatric respiratory diseases. Results The lag effect of atmospheric concentrations of NO2, PM10 and SO2 on outpatients with pediatric respiratory diseases could lasted for 15 days. The cumulative effect of NO2, PM10 and SO2 concentration on outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases was statistically significant at 0-30 days (P <0.05), and reached the maximum at 15 days (P < NO2: RR = 1.029 2,95% CI: 1.024 6-1.033 8; PM10: RR = 1.020 4,95% CI: 1.016 4-1.024 5; SO2: RR = 1.040 8,95% CI: 1.032 5-1.049 1 ). Conclusion The increase of NO2, PM10 and SO2 concentration in Guangzhou may increase the number of outpatient visits to children with respiratory diseases within 15 days.