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消费是拉动经济增长的主要动力之一,我省城镇居民消费状况如何?其结构水平变动有何特点?搞清这些问题,对我省宏观经济决策、企业生产经营决策有着重要的意义。本文利用近几年统计资料对这一问题进行分析。目前国内用于消费结构预测的模型大部分是以截面数据资料建立起来的线性扩展支出系统ELES,它反映在某一时间截面物价水平下不同收入水平消费者的均衡状况,属于静态预测模型,具有很大的局限性。本文拟在ELES模型基础上考虑时间因素的变化对其加以改进,构建一组横截面样本与时间序列组合运用的动态预测模型体系。
Consumption is one of the major driving forces driving economic growth. What is the consumption status of urban residents in our province? What are the characteristics of structural changes? To understand these issues is of great significance to the macro-economic decision-making and enterprise production and management decision-making in our province. This article uses the statistical data in recent years to analyze this issue. At present, most of the models used for the prediction of consumption structure in China are the linear extended expenditure system ELES established by cross-sectional data, which reflects the equilibrium condition of consumers with different income levels at a certain time and belongs to the static forecasting model. Great limitations. This paper intends to improve the ELES model based on the change of time factor, and builds a set of dynamic prediction model system for the combination of cross-sectional samples and time series.