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本文将上市公司和投资者抽象为一般意义上的股市参与者概念,基于进化博弈关于有限理性的惯性、近视眼和试错法实验三个层面,在沪港通视角下构建了一个市场开放度影响参与者占优策略选择的理论分析框架,基于模拟的支付矩阵,经验分析发现:沪港通当前的相关设计安排对应着较低的开放度,从而对股市生态改善短期影响有限;但长期而言,随着市场开放度的逐步提高,A股市场参与者的占优策略将逐步被成熟市场的投资策略所同化,最终实现帕累托有效进化。论文进一步把这一理论框架从特殊扩展到一般,并分析了双重均衡下的路径依赖问题。
In this paper, the listed companies and investors are abstracted into the concept of stock market participants in the general sense. Based on the three aspects of inertia, myopia and trial and error in the evolutionary game, the paper constructs a market openness Based on the simulated payment matrix, empirical analysis shows that the current relevant design arrangement of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect corresponds to a low degree of openness, which will have a limited short-term impact on the ecological improvement of the stock market. However, in the long run, Say, with the gradual increase of market openness, the dominant strategy of A-share market participants will gradually be assimilated by the investment strategy of mature markets, and finally Pareto will be effectively evolved. The paper further extends this theoretical framework from special to general and analyzes the problem of path dependence under the double equilibrium.