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利用吉林省梨树县1986～2008年的气象资料和玉米产量资料,在确定梨树县玉米的气象产量与积温、降雨以及日照时数之间关系的基础上,分析吉林省气候变化规律及其对玉米产量的影响。结果表明:玉米的气象产量(Yw)与降雨量(x1)呈显著正相关,与生育期内的积温(x2)呈显著负相关,与日照时数无显著相关关系,与生育期内的降雨量和积温存在显著的二元线性关系:Yw=15768.77+2.87x1-5.42x2,(r=0.63)。吉林省整个生育期内的平均气温、积温分别以每年0.05℃和10℃左右增加,降雨量以每年5mm左右减少,日照时数没有明显变化。随着吉林省气候变暖和降雨减少现象的加剧,对吉林省的旱情和玉米产量的影响越来越重。
Based on the meteorological data and the corn yield data from 1986 to 2008 in Lishu County, Jilin Province, the relationship between climate output and accumulated temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours in Lishu County was analyzed, and the climate change laws in Jilin Province Impact on corn production. The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation between Yw and rainfall (x1), negative correlation with accumulated temperature (x2) in maize, no significant correlation with sunshine duration, There is a significant binary linear relationship between quantity and accumulated temperature: Yw = 15768.77 + 2.87x1-5.42x2, (r = 0.63). The average temperature and accumulated temperature of Jilin Province during the whole growing period increased by 0.05 ℃ and 10 ℃ respectively, rainfall decreased by about 5mm per year, and the sunshine hours did not change significantly. With the intensification of climate change and rainfall reduction in Jilin Province, the impact on drought and maize production in Jilin Province is more and more serious.