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1 经济环境分析和预测方法介绍 20世纪末至21世纪初将是我国经济发展的关键时期。我国经济发展的潜力到底有多大?能否抓住对我极为有利的国际环境,在未来的三十年里使我国经济不但从总量上进入世界前列,而且从人均主要经济指标方面也尽量靠近和赶上中等先进国家水平?是世人瞩目的重大问题。对此,我们采用国际对比、模型测算以及定性分析的方法对2020年我国经济发展的前景进行了预测。预测基于以下两个基本假设:(1)未来30年我国不会发生和参与较大规模的
I. Introduction to Economic Environment Analysis and Forecast Methods The period from the end of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century will be a crucial period for China’s economic development. How big is the potential for economic development in our country? Can we seize the extremely favorable international environment for me and in the next thirty years bring our economy not only from the total amount into the world, but also come as close as possible to major economic indicators per capita And to catch up with the advanced countries in the middle level? It is a major issue that has attracted worldwide attention. In this regard, we use the international comparison, model calculation and qualitative analysis of the prospects for economic development in China in 2020 forecasted. The forecast is based on the following two basic assumptions: (1) Our country will not happen and participate in a larger scale in the next 30 years