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1农业气象灾害预警技术研究对华北农业干旱、东北作物低温冷害、江淮小麦油菜渍害、华南经济林果寒害和水产寒害等农业气象灾害分别建立了统计预测模型和机理预测模型相结合、长中短不同预报时效相结合的预警预测模型。其中作物生长模型与区域气候模式相结合的新一代农业气象灾害预测技术在实现区域尺度预测应用上取得重要进展;各类预测模型在灾害指标、预测方法上取得新的突破,预报准确率进一步提高。在此基础上,成功研制出包含多种预测方法、不同预报时效、可供准业务运行的农业气象灾害多灾种综合预测预警系统。课题研制的模型进行了业务试验,部分成果如广东经济林果寒害预警已投入业务运行。课题于2005年12月顺利通过项目主持单位农业部组织的专家验收。该课题成果代表了我国目前农业气象灾害预警预测研究的最新进展和水平,对于进一步开展和提高其他地区、其他灾害的预报能力具有一定的推广借鉴作用和应用前景。
1 Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Early Warning Technology Research The combination of statistical forecasting model and mechanism forecasting model for agricultural meteorological disasters such as agricultural drought in North China, low temperature chilling injury in northeast China, rapeseed injury in Jianghuai region, cold injury in aquatic products in South China, An Early Warning Model Based on Different Forecast Aging. A new generation of agrometeorological disaster forecasting technology combining crop growth model and regional climate model has made significant progress in the application of regional scale forecasting. Various types of forecasting models have made new breakthroughs in disaster indicators and prediction methods, and their forecasting accuracy has been further improved . On this basis, we have successfully developed a multi-hazard integrated forecasting and early warning system for agrometeorological disasters that contains a variety of forecasting methods, different forecasting time limits and is ready for business operation. The model developed by the subject has been tested in business. Some of the results, such as warnings of economic crisis in Guangdong, have been put into operation. The project passed the acceptance of experts organized by the Ministry of Agriculture of the project host in December 2005. The achievement of this project represents the latest progress and level of the research on early warning and forecasting of agricultural meteorological disasters in our country, which has certain promotion and reference for further carrying out and improving the forecasting ability of other disasters in other regions.