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运用状态空间法构建综合承载力模型,利用主成分分析法求取权重,对吉林省2005-2014年综合承载力进行了测算,结果显示:1)吉林省综合承载力虽然呈“波动式”上升,但始终处于超载状态,说明吉林省经济处于一种不可持续状态;2)自然资源承载力>经济承载力>生态承载力,自然资源承载力是富余的,经济承载力基本处于均衡状态,而生态资源承载力却明显不足,处于赤字状态,说明生态环境将限制吉林省经济发展;3)土地资源承载力>水资源承载力>能源承载力,土地资源承载力是富余的,但水资源和能源承载力却不足,处于赤字状态,说明水资源与能源是制约吉林省经济发展限制性因素;最后从发展循环经济,优化产业结构,提高科学技术,改变人们生产和生活方式等来提高吉林省综合承载力,旨为吉林省经济持续发展提供了技术支撑.
The state space method is used to construct the comprehensive bearing capacity model and the principal component analysis method is used to calculate the weight. The comprehensive carrying capacity of Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014 is calculated. The results show that: 1) Although the integrated bearing capacity of Jilin Province is fluctuating The economic capacity of Jilin Province is in an unsustainable state. 2) The carrying capacity of natural resources> Economic carrying capacity> Ecological carrying capacity, the carrying capacity of natural resources are surplus, and the economic carrying capacity is basically in a state of equilibrium , While the carrying capacity of ecological resources is obviously insufficient, in a deficit state, indicating that the ecological environment will limit the economic development of Jilin Province; 3) carrying capacity of land resources> carrying capacity of water resources> carrying capacity of resources and carrying capacity of land resources are surplus, Resources and energy carrying capacity is not enough, in a deficit state, indicating that water resources and energy are restricting the economic development in Jilin Province restrictive factors; and finally from the development of recycling economy, optimizing industrial structure, improving science and technology, changing people’s production and way of life to improve Jilin Province, the comprehensive carrying capacity, aimed at Jilin Province, sustained economic development has provided technical support.