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为了提高对锅炉压力容器设备焊接工艺的安全评估质量,利用安全管理统计所产生的大量历史数据,计算待评估焊接部件的检验观测值对应的安全评估基线参数。基于不断更新的历史数据,实现安全评估基线的持续改善。以分组组合样本数据处理的方法对检验观测值进行处理。构建评估输出结果由二元结果(安全、不安全)到概率值的安全评估概率统计模型。研究表明,在具体的工程应用实践中,该模型对焊接工艺安全评估所得概率结果的可靠度超过99%,提供了高可靠度的安全评估概率值的结果,明显简化了焊接部件安全估计过程。
In order to improve the quality of safety assessment of the welding process of boiler pressure vessel equipment, a large amount of historical data generated by safety management statistics are used to calculate the baseline safety assessment parameters corresponding to the inspection observations of the welding components to be evaluated. Based on continually updated historical data, continuous improvement of the safety assessment baseline is achieved. The test observations are processed by grouping sample data processing methods. Construct a safety assessment probabilistic statistical model that evaluates output results from binary results (safe, unsafe) to probabilistic values. The research shows that in the practical engineering practice, the reliability of the model to the probabilistic result of the safety assessment of welding process is over 99%, which provides the result of the probabilistic safety assessment with high reliability and obviously simplifies the process of safety assessment of welding parts.