论文部分内容阅读
目的 对云南省HIV感染流行趋势进行分析和预测.方法 采用1992～1999年哨点监测结果和历年预测的实际HIV感染数,进行流行趋势描述和相关回归分析.结果 静脉吸毒为云南省HIV流行优势型,从HIV感染引入,由边境地区蔓延至全省约花了12年的时间,1999年云南省IDUs平均HIV流行率为27.8%,预测2005年可达到40%;HIV的性传播:1990年性病门诊哨点中男性HIV流行率为1.8%,卖淫人群为2.2%,嫖客为1.1%,经性传播HIV感染率逐年上升,预测男性性病病人在2004年和卖淫人群在2003年流行率将会超过5%;云南省孕妇平均HIV感染率为0.2%,估计近2年云南省每年约有1500名孕妇和5O0个新生儿感染HIV.云南省经静脉吸毒的HIV传播在1995年和1996年出现的流行地区扩大和增长率峰年及HIV经性传播的1996年增长率峰年表明云南省1995年、1996年前为HIV传入和局限流行期,以后进入快速扩散增长期,预测云南省2005年成人流行率可能会达0.78%.结论 哨点监测数据可以反映云南省HIV感染流行主流,可估计实际HIV感染者数和预测流行趋势.对于年趋严重的HIV感染疫情,必须迅速采取有效的预防措施来降低流行率.
Objective To analyze and predict the epidemic trend of HIV infection in Yunnan Province.Methods According to the sentinel surveillance results from 1992 to 1999 and the actual number of HIV infection predicted over the years, the epidemiological description and correlation analysis were conducted.Results The intravenous drug use was the prevalence of HIV in Yunnan Province Type, introduced from HIV infection, which took about 12 years to spread from the border area to the province. The average HIV prevalence rate of IDUs in Yunnan Province in 1999 was 27.8%, which is predicted to reach 40% in 2005; Sexual transmission of HIV: 1990 Among STD clinics, the prevalence of HIV among men is 1.8%, that of prostitutes is 2.2% and that of clients is 1.1%. The prevalence of sexually transmitted HIV infection is on the rise year by year. It is predicted that the prevalence of STDs among sexually transmitted diseases among men and women in 2003 will be More than 5%; pregnant women in Yunnan Province, the average HIV infection rate was 0.2%, estimated that nearly 2 years each year in Yunnan Province, about 1,500 pregnant women and 5O0 newborns infected with HIV in Yunnan Province via intravenous drug use in HIV transmission in 1995 and 1996 Growth and Growth Rates in Peak Areas and HIV Sexual Transmission in 1996 Peak Growth Rates in 1996 Indicate Yunnan Province In 1995, Pre-1996 HIV Inbound and Localized Prevalence Periods, Enter Rapid Growth and Growth Period, Forecast Yunnan Province 2005 Adult Line rate may reach 0.78% .Conclusion sentinel surveillance data can reflect the prevalence of HIV infection in Yunnan Province, can estimate the actual number of HIV-infected persons and predict the trend.For the increasingly serious HIV infection, we must take prompt and effective preventive measures To reduce the prevalence.