在分析媒体传播效果、人际传播效果为影响战争舆情演化主体(个体)立场演变的主因基础上,采用自底向上的基于Agent的建模理论与方法对战争舆情演化复杂系统进行建模研究,详细描述了媒体Agent影响力以及个体Agent立场演化致因两类模型,给出了个体Agent立场演化依据以及规则,初步实现了某地区战争舆情演化模型原型系统,并进行了仿真实验与分析。结果表明,模型的建立为量化研究舆情演化问题提供了一种思路。 Based on the analysis of the effect of media communication and the effect of interpersonal communication on the evolution of the subject (individual) in the evolution of war public opinion, this paper uses the bottom-up agent-based modeling theory and method to study the evolutionary complex system of war public opinion. This paper describes the influence of media agent and the evolvement of agent’s stand, and gives the basis and rules of agent’s evolution. The prototype system of evolutionary model of war’s public opinion in a certain region is preliminarily implemented, and the simulation experiment and analysis are carried out. The results show that the establishment of the model provides a way to quantitatively study the evolution of public opinion.