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通过计算中国大陆加入WTO以来中国大陆出口的垂直专业化比率,以及东亚各经济体的中间产品的来料比率及其贡献,本文发现,无论是在出口总量上,还是在台湾地区出口到中国大陆的主要产品,其对中国大陆垂直专业化的贡献程度从2002年以来一直在下降。这表明中国大陆不断深化的开放并没有促进海峡两岸产业链的进一步深化,相反,受此前台湾的“戒急用忍”政策所至,海峡两岸产业互补性垂直分工减弱。进一步采用GTAP模型模拟中国大陆参与东亚区域贸易自由化的各种不同场景,结果显示,通过ECFA参与中国大陆区域贸易自由化进程的三种模式均有利于提高台湾来料对大陆出口垂直专业化的贡献度,有利于台湾走出在东亚分工体系中被边缘化的困境,优化海峡两岸产业垂直分工体系。反之,如果中国大陆率先与其他东亚国家实现全面贸易自由化,会给两岸产业垂直分工模式带来一定的负面影响。
By calculating the vertical specialization ratio of Chinese exports in mainland China since the accession to the WTO and the incoming ratio of intermediate products in East Asian economies and their contribution, this paper finds that whether exporting to China in total exports or in Taiwan The mainland’s major product, its contribution to vertical specialization in mainland China has been declining since 2002. This shows that the deepening opening of mainland China has not promoted further deepening of the industrial chain across the Taiwan Strait. On the contrary, due to the previous policy of “no haste, be patient,” the vertical division of labor across the Taiwan Strait has weakened. The further use of the GTAP model to simulate the various scenarios in which mainland China is involved in trade liberalization in East Asia shows that the three modes of trade liberalization through the ECFA in the Mainland of China are conducive to enhancing the vertical specialization of Taiwan’s exports to the mainland Contribution is conducive to Taiwan out of the plight of being marginalized in the division of labor in East Asia and optimizing the system of vertical division of labor across the Taiwan Strait. On the other hand, if mainland China takes the lead in realizing full trade liberalization with other East Asian countries, it will have a certain negative impact on the vertical division of labor across the Taiwan Strait.