论文部分内容阅读
目的建立长沙市流感/甲型H1N1流感预警模型,分析其灵敏度和特异度,寻找合适的预警模型,为长沙市早预防早控制流感提供科学依据;方法以长沙市2006-2008年流感样病例(ILI)哨点监测基础数据建立数据库,利用数据库用不同的方法建立不同的模型,形成各预警线,并用综合性指标评价各模型,筛选最优模型。结果本次研究共建立3个预警模型。模型1共发出预警信号6次,预警信号有效周数为13,灵敏度为72.73%,特异度为50%,无最优预警信号;模型2(P90)共发出预警信号8次,预警信号有效周数为15,灵敏度为81.82%,特异度为40%,无最优预警信号;模型2(P75)共发出预警信号17次,预警信号有效周数为19,灵敏度为100%,特异度为20%,最优预警信号数为1次;模型3共发出预警信号5次,预警信号有效周数为16,灵敏度为100%,特异度为50%,最优预警信号数为1次。结论模型3为长沙市流感预警最优模型,可以应用于长沙市的流感/甲型H1N1流感防控工作中。
Objective To establish an early warning model of influenza / Influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha and analyze the sensitivity and specificity of the model to find a suitable early warning model and provide a scientific basis for early prevention of influenza in Changsha City. Methods Based on the cases of influenza-like illness in Changsha City from 2006 to 2008 ILI) sentinel monitoring basic data to establish a database, the use of databases to establish different models in different ways, the formation of the warning line, and use a comprehensive index to evaluate the model, screening the optimal model. Results The study established a total of three early warning models. In the model 1, six warning signals were issued, the valid weeks of early warning signals were 13, the sensitivity was 72.73%, and the specificity was 50%. There was no optimal warning signal. Model 2 (P90) The number of 15 was 15, the sensitivity was 81.82%, the specificity was 40%, there was no optimal warning signal; Model 2 (P75) issued 17 warning signals, the effective weeks of warning signal was 19, the sensitivity was 100% and the specificity was 20 %, The optimal number of early warning signals is one time. In model 3, five times of early warning signals are issued, the effective week number of early warning signals is 16, the sensitivity is 100%, the specificity is 50%, and the optimal number of early warning signals is one time. Conclusion Model 3 is the optimal model for early warning of influenza in Changsha City and can be used in the prevention and control of influenza / H1N1 influenza in Changsha City.