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失衡与调整是新世纪全球经济的两大主题词。迄今,国内外对全球经济失衡形成机制、由谁调整、如何调整等问题存在着激烈的争论,远未达成共识。本文研究表明:全球经济失衡包括三个层次,国际收支失衡是最普遍使用的层次;全球经济失衡是否具有可持续性具有重要的政策含义;只有全面考察全球经济失衡的内在形成机制,我们才能避免犯“盲人摸象”的错误;失衡的错综复杂性,决定了全球经济调整将是一条缓慢、长期和艰辛之路;全球经济调整的关键是对储蓄投资失衡关系的调整;为避免全球经济硬着陆的发生,美国及其他主要国家应主动承担起调整的责任;中国应调整出口导向战略,把经济增长更多地建立在依靠内需的基础上。
Imbalance and adjustment are the two major global economic words in the new century. So far, there have been heated debates over who adjusts and how to adjust the formation mechanism of the global economic imbalance at home and abroad, far from reaching a consensus. This study shows that: the global economic imbalance includes three levels, the imbalance of the international payments is the most commonly used level; whether the global economic imbalances have the important policy implication of sustainability; only a thorough examination of the internal formation mechanism of global economic imbalance, we can The key to global economic adjustment is the adjustment of the imbalanced relationship between savings and investment. In order to avoid global economic hardship, the key to global economic adjustment is to adjust the imbalance between savings and investment. In order to avoid global economic hardship, As the landing takes place, the United States and other major countries should take the initiative to assume the responsibility of adjustment. China should adjust its export-oriented strategy to rely more on domestic demand.