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为了解天山西部山区以融雪补给为主河流的水文特性和影响因素,提高该地区融雪年径流预报精度,基于小波分析方法和小波相关性分析方法,以天山西部山区喀什河流域为研究区,借助乌拉斯台水文站1960~2005年逐日实测年降水、年气温和年径流数据进行计算分析。结果表明,年气温、年降水和年径流序列分别存在22、27、18年的周期变化特性;年气温与年径流序列、年降水与年径流序列均存在良好的相关性,并且年降水对年径流的影响较大,直接决定河川径流量,年气温对年径流起调峰调频的作用。
In order to understand the hydrological characteristics and influencing factors of the main rivers in the western Tianshan Mountains with melting snow supply and improve the forecast accuracy of snowmelt years runoff in this area, based on wavelet analysis and wavelet correlation analysis, taking the Kashi River basin in western mountainous area of Tianshan as the research area, The annual precipitation, annual temperature and annual runoff data of Wulasitu hydrological station from 1960 to 2005 were calculated and analyzed. The results show that annual temperature, annual precipitation and annual runoff sequences have periodic variation characteristics of 22, 27, and 18 years respectively. There is a good correlation between annual temperature and annual runoff series, annual precipitation and annual runoff series, The impact of runoff is larger, which directly determines the runoff of rivers, and the effect of annual temperature on the annual runoff from peak to peak frequency.