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本文通过分析我国军事实力的周期波动,揭示了军事实力与经济实力之间的深层联系。本文利用象征军事实力的军事资本数据和象征经济实力的GDP,采用CF滤波分解法,分解得到它们的周期性成分,并计算这些周期性成分的标准差、自相关系数以及它们之间的时差相关系数。在此基础上,分析了中国军事实力周期波动的经验特征,总结出中国军事实力周期波动的典型事实。研究发现,1954以来我国经济实力和军事实力的周期均为7次,并均表现出非对称性,军事实力相对于经济实力的周期波动而言是顺周期的,并且二者是同步的。
This article reveals the deep relationship between military power and economic power by analyzing the cyclical fluctuations in China’s military power. In this paper, we use the military capital data, which symbolizes the military strength, and the GDP, which symbolizes the economic strength, using the CF filter decomposition method to decompose their periodic components and calculate the standard deviation, the autocorrelation coefficient and the time difference between them coefficient. On this basis, this paper analyzes the empirical characteristics of the cyclical fluctuations in China’s military power and sums up the typical facts about the cyclical fluctuations in China’s military power. The study shows that since 1954, the cycle of China’s economic strength and military strength has been seven times, both of which show asymmetry. The military strength is procyclical in relation to the cyclical fluctuation of economic strength, and the two are in synchronicity.