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为比较准确地确定天然气管网系统的薄弱环节,结合其特点,提出系统脆弱性的概念。基于灾害链理论,深入分析天然气管网系统脆弱性要素,探讨导致管网系统脆弱性的致灾因子,找出天然气管网系统的威胁部位。利用流量阻断模型(FIM),建立管网系统结构性威胁的计算模型。最后,利用模型分析北京某区域天然气高压管网系统脆弱性。结果表明:北京市三环、四环路周围调压站(箱)中22站、16站、29站、41站的脆弱性较高,应重点巡查与监控。
In order to more accurately determine the weak links of natural gas pipeline network system, combined with its characteristics, the concept of system vulnerability is proposed. Based on disaster chain theory, the paper deeply analyzes the elements of natural gas pipeline system vulnerability and explores the hazard factors that lead to the vulnerability of the pipe network system and finds out the threat parts of the natural gas pipeline network system. Using traffic block model (FIM), a computational model of structural threat to the network system is established. Finally, the model is used to analyze the vulnerability of natural gas high-pressure pipe network system in a certain area of Beijing. The results show that the vulnerability of station 22, station 16, station 29 and station 41 around the third and the fourth ring road in Beijing is higher and should be focused on inspection and monitoring.