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本文在缓冲储备理论中引入了习惯形成因素,在BS模型的基础上构造了一个既包括国际收支波动性和机会成本同时又考虑了习惯形成因素的动态调整模型。利用1996-2009年间中国国际储备的月度数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)一国国际储备是国际收支不确定性和机会成本的函数,它们三者之间存在长期均衡关系,也就是说BS理论预期模型在经过适当的修正后对中国外汇储备规模的实证研究是适用的。(2)习惯形成参数越大,以往的制度因素形成的惯性对后期储备积累的影响就越大,国际收支不确定性以及机会成本对储备的影响也越小,并且这个惯性一旦形成,很难立刻改变。(3)正是由于考虑了习惯形成因素,外汇储备规模关于国际收支不确定性的弹性以及机会成本的弹性更接近于BS模型的理论预期值。
This paper introduces the habit forming factor into the theory of buffer stock. Based on the BS model, this paper constructs a dynamic adjusting model that includes both the balance of payments and the opportunity cost as well as the habit forming factors. Using the monthly data of China’s international reserves from 1996 to 2009, the empirical analysis shows that: (1) The international reserve of a country is a function of the uncertainty of the balance of payments and the opportunity cost, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among them That is to say, the theoretical model of BS theory is applicable to empirical research on the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves after proper revision. (2) The larger the parameters of habit formation, the greater the influence of the inertia formed by the previous institutional factors on the accumulation of reserves in the later period, the less impact of the balance of payments uncertainty and the opportunity cost on the reserves, and the inertia once formed Difficult to change immediately. (3) It is precisely because of the formation of habitual factors that the elasticity of the size of the foreign exchange reserves with respect to the uncertainty of the balance of payments and the elasticity of the opportunity cost is closer to the theoretical expectation of the BS model.