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日本木材市场高度依赖国外供应。由于世界范围的环境保护方面的努力,在不远的将来,进口到日本的原木和制材的数量将会急剧下降.另一方面,由于60年代营造了大量人工林,在近10年里,日本国内森林蓄积水平在增加.建立日本林业模型,以期分析日本国内以及来自美国、加拿大的长期木材贸易动态。其包括日本森林生长模型、以日美、日加贸易为重点的木材贸易模型、地区木材市场模型和最小运输成本模型.模拟分析显示,即使日本木材生产者能够控制日本的木材市场,木材仍然短缺,仍然需要木材输出国来弥补。它还显示,关东、东海和关西地区的木材生产者不会受到国外供应的强烈影响,而在东北、中国、四固和九州地区,日本木材生产者将与国外供应者处于竞争状态。
Japan’s timber market is highly dependent on foreign supplies. Due to world-wide environmental protection efforts, the volume of logs and timber imports to Japan will decline sharply in the near future. On the other hand, due to the large number of plantations that were built in the 1960s, in the past 10 years, Japan’s domestic forest reserves are on the rise, establishing a Japanese forestry model to analyze the long-term timber trade dynamics in Japan and in the United States and Canada. It includes the Japanese forest growth model, the timber trade model focusing on the trade between Japan, the United States, Japan and Canada, the regional timber market model and the minimum transportation cost model.Modeling analysis shows that even though Japanese timber producers can control the Japanese timber market, the timber is still in shortage , Still need to export countries to make up for wood. It also shows that timber producers in the Kanto, East Sea and Kansai regions will not be strongly affected by foreign supplies, while Japanese timber producers will compete with foreign suppliers in northeastern China, China’s Sogou and Kyushu regions.