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2011年天然橡胶市场走势总体呈现冲高回落的大调整格局,沪胶指数高点在43000～45000元,而下方低点略超出预估,最低达到23790元。主要有三大影响因素:2010年对供需面过度炒作导致天然橡胶价格累积涨幅过大,市场有修复的需求;下游企业消费受到成本过高的压制,日本强地震、泰国洪水、中国汽车产销增速大幅放缓也对天然橡胶消费形成拖累;欧洲债务危机全面爆发对整体宏观经济环境也形成压制。众多的利空因素叠加导致了完整的三浪调整走势。2012年天然橡胶市场依旧较为复杂。天然橡胶基本面和宏观面的共振主要体现在2012年上半年形成压制因素,预计下半年市场形势或略有好转,2012年天然橡胶市场走势略微呈现前低后高的局面,不过由于2011年累积跌幅较大,而且产胶国的政策底基本形成,2012年天然橡胶价格继续下跌的空间有限,下方存在3个支撑位,分别为23500元、22000元和20000元;上方三大重要阻力位分别为30000元、34500元和36500元。
In 2011, the trend of natural rubber market showed an overall adjustment pattern that finished lower and finished higher. The index of Hujiao was at a high of 43000-45000 yuan while the lows below slightly exceeded the estimates and the lowest reached 23,790 yuan. There are three main influencing factors: the excessive speculation in supply and demand in 2010 led to an excessive increase in the price of natural rubber, and the demand for repair in the market. The downstream enterprises’ consumption was suppressed by over-high costs. The strong earthquakes in Japan, the floods in Thailand and the growth in the production and sales of automobiles in China A sharp slowdown has also dragged down the consumption of natural rubber. The outbreak of the European debt crisis has also put an end to the overall macroeconomic environment. The combination of many negative factors led to the complete adjustment of the three waves. Natural rubber market in 2012 is still more complicated. Resonance of natural rubber fundamentals and macroscopic surfaces is mainly reflected in the formation of the suppression factor in the first half of 2012. The market situation is expected to be slightly improved in the second half of the year. In 2012, the natural rubber market will show a slight slowdown followed by a slight decline. However, A larger decline, but also the basic policy of the country producing rubber basically formed in 2012 natural rubber prices continue to decline in the space there are three support below, respectively, respectively, 23,500 yuan, 22,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan; the top three major resistance levels were For 30,000 yuan, 34,500 yuan and 36,500 yuan.