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从日本、新加坡等国的发展实际来看,一个国家在经济高速增长时期能源弹性系数远远大于0.6～0.7,我国1992年成品油实际销售比1991年增长12.6%,是同期国民经济增长的1.05倍.根据1.0的能源弹性系数,预计到本世纪末我国的原油需求至少在2亿吨以上,而预计2000年国内原油产量仅能达到1.65亿吨。国内原油供需的严重失衡将长期成为我国石化工业发展的一大制约。这一现实要求我国石化企业特别是沿海石化企业主动走向国际市
In terms of actual development in Japan, Singapore and other countries, the energy elasticity coefficient of a country in the period of rapid economic growth is far greater than 0.6 to 0.7. The actual oil product sales in 1992 increased by 12.6% over 1991, which was 1.05 times of the national economic growth in the same period According to the energy elasticity coefficient of 1.0, it is estimated that the demand for crude oil in our country will be at least 200 million tons by the end of this century, while the domestic crude oil output in 2000 is only expected to reach 165 million tons. The serious imbalance of domestic crude oil supply and demand will become a long-term restriction of the development of China’s petrochemical industry. This reality requires that China’s petrochemical enterprises, especially coastal petrochemical enterprises, take the initiative to go to the international market