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农产品价格问题一直是关乎国计民生的重要问题,与经济的发展、宏观政策的制定及居民消费价格的稳定具有密切的关联。本文以1998-2013年我国价格数据为基础,利用格兰杰检验、脉冲响应函数等实证分析了农产品价格波动与居民消费价格的关系。分析发现,二者存在显著的线性相关,居民整体消费价格水平对农产品价格波动的影响较大,而农产品价格波动对居民消费价格影响有限,并据此对促进农产品价格稳定、健康的发展提出相关政策建议。
The price of agricultural products has always been an important issue concerning the national economy and the people’s livelihood. It is closely linked with the development of economy, the formulation of macroeconomic policies, and the stabilization of consumer prices. Based on China’s price data from 1998 to 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the price volatility of agricultural products and the consumer prices by using Granger test and impulse response function. The analysis shows that there is a significant linear correlation between the two. The overall consumer price level of residents has a greater impact on the price volatility of agricultural products, while the fluctuation of agricultural product prices has a limited impact on consumer prices, and accordingly, it is relevant to promote the stable and healthy development of agricultural products policy suggestion.