中小企业在我国国民经济已经占据了至关重要的地位,对整个社会的发展起了巨大的推动作用。本文选取了2006年、2007年中小板块42家企业作为研究样本,采用因子分析法选取涵盖了15个指标信息量的5个主成分因子,并运用Logistic模型做实证研究,分别预测样本企业2008年和2009年发生财务危机的概率,从而有效预警企业财务风险。 Small and medium-sized enterprises have occupied a crucial position in the national economy of our country and have played a huge role in promoting the development of the entire society. In this paper, 42 small and medium-sized enterprises in 2006 and 2007 were chosen as the research samples. Factor analysis was used to select five principal component factors that covered the information of 15 indicators. Empirical studies were conducted using Logistic model to predict the sample companies in 2008 And the probability of a financial crisis in 2009, so as to effectively alert the enterprise of financial risks.