本文对中美轮胎“特保案”进行了定量研究,利用Granger因果关系检验、HP滤波分析法较深入研究了中国输美轮胎与美国轮胎制造业工人失业之间的关系,揭示了美国对从中国进口轮胎采取“特保”措施的不合理性。本研究不仅为中国争取WTO争端解决机制下的有利裁决提供理论支持,而且对改善中国对外贸易发展环境具有重要现实意义。 This paper conducts a quantitative research on China-US Tire “Safeguard Scheme ”. By using Granger causality test and HP filter analysis, the paper deeply studies the relationship between China’s U.S.-bound tire and the unemployment of American tire manufacturing workers, Irrationality of adopting “special safeguard” measures to import tires from China. This study not only provides theoretical support for China’s favorable ruling under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, but also has important practical significance for improving the development environment of China’s foreign trade.