2003年的中国通信行业市场,各种新技术、新概念层出不穷。作为业界公认的未来网络的发展模式,以软交换为核心NGN技术成为了众人瞩目的焦点,无论是技术还是从市场方面,均呈现出向NGN倾斜的趋势。 诚然,新的技术必然带来新的发展动力;但同时,新的技术也不可避免地存在推广、应用以及最终被用户认可的成熟周期,并需要相当的资金投入,才能提供不确定的收益。对于各大运营商而言,如何在现有网络的基础上,不断挖掘固话市场潜力、提升固话设备业务险能、增加业务收入,也同样是保证自身发展的重要一环。 纵观中国通信市场,近14亿的人口为固定电话的持续发展奠定了广阔的市场基础,虽然近期的增长率出现了减缓的趋势,但是应该看到,中国人均固定电话占有率仍不足20％,还有巨大的市场空间可以开拓。同时,横向分 2003 China’s communications industry market, all kinds of new technologies, new concepts after another. As a recognized development mode of the future network in the industry, NGN technology has become the focus of attention at the core of softswitch. Both the technology and the market have shown a tendency to tilt toward NGN. It is true that new technologies will inevitably bring new impetus to development. However, at the same time, new technologies inevitably have the mature period of popularization, application and end-user recognition and require considerable capital investment to provide uncertain returns. For major operators, how to continuously tap the potential of the fixed line market, enhance the business risks of fixed line equipment and increase their business revenues is also an important part of ensuring their own development based on the existing networks. Looking at China’s communications market, nearly 1.4 billion of the population have laid a vast market foundation for the sustainable development of fixed-line telephones. Although the recent growth rate has slowed down, it should be noted that the per capita share of fixed-line telephones in China is still below 20% , There is a huge market space can be exploited. At the same time, horizontal points