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一个国家经济的波动对经济的发展有很大的影响。本文引入ARCH类模型,在简要介绍模型的基础上,基于中国1953~2012年实际GDP增长率的数据进行实证分析,探究我国经济增长的波动特征。结果表明:GARCH(1,1)模型较好地表示了我国经济的波动,该波动具有很强的波动聚集性和波动持续性;我国经济的波动不存在不对称性;经济增长的波动性增加将导致增长率绝对水平的提高,但是该影响效果并不明显。
The volatility of a country’s economy has a great impact on economic development. This paper introduces the ARCH model, based on the brief introduction of the model, based on the data of China’s real GDP growth from 1953 to 2012, the paper empirically analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of China’s economic growth. The results show that: GARCH (1,1) model shows the economic fluctuation in our country well, the fluctuation has strong volatility aggregation and volatility persistence; the fluctuation of our economy has no asymmetry; the volatility of economic growth increases Will lead to an increase in the absolute level of growth rate, but the effect is not obvious.