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利用1997—2013年31个省份的面板数据,通过构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型(SSPVAR)及时空脉冲响应函数,实证检验我国技术选择、产业结构升级和经济增长之间的时空传导效应,并探讨对外开放度对三者的异质性影响。结果发现,技术选择、产业结构升级及经济增长受到彼此的冲击后,大部分都呈现出正向的响应特征。其中,技术选择推进本省份及周边省份的产业结构升级,并在短期阻碍了经济增长,但长期内促进整体区域经济增长;产业结构升级不仅推进整体区域产业结构升级,还促进本省份及周边省份经济增长;经济中心的拉动效应较强且持久,经济增长会促进整个区域的技术选择、产业结构升级。此外,对外开放度对技术选择、产业结构升级的效应呈现出“N”形特征,对外开放度对经济增长的效应前期较为平稳,随后呈现出“倒U”形特征。
Using the panel data of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2013, this paper empirically tests the space-time transmission effect between China’s technological choices, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth by constructing semi-parametric space panel vector autoregressive model (SSPVAR) and time-space impulse response function, And explore the impact of the degree of opening up on the heterogeneity of the three. The results showed that most of them showed positive response characteristics after the impact of technological choices, upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth were mutually impacted. Among them, the technological choices promote the upgrading of industrial structure in the province and surrounding provinces and hinder economic growth in the short run, but promote the overall regional economic growth in the long term. The upgrading of industrial structure not only promotes the upgrading of the overall regional industrial structure, but also promotes the development of the province and its neighboring provinces Economic growth; economic center pull strong and lasting effect, economic growth will promote the region’s technology choices, industrial upgrading. In addition, the effect of opening to the outside world on the choice of technology and the upgrading of industrial structure showed “N ” shape, and the effect of opening to the outside world on economic growth was relatively stable in the early period, showing an inverted U shape.