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根据科技园区财政收入预测的需要,在对历史数据分析的基础上,利用灰色预测理论建立了丰台科技园区财政收入预测的GM(1,1)模型,为了提高预测精度,用GM(1,1)残差模型对其修正,得出预测公式.通过预测结果的对比分析和模型的后验差检验,证明预测模型精度较高.模型的应用为科技园区财政收入预测提供了一种科学方法,同时也为园区管理决策提供了依据.
Based on the historical data analysis, the GM (1,1) model of financial revenue forecast in Fengtai Science and Technology Park was established based on the gray forecast theory. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, GM (1,1) ) Residual model to get the prediction formula.According to the comparative analysis of the prediction results and the posterior difference test of the model, the prediction model is proved to be more accurate.The application of the model provides a scientific method for the financial revenue forecast in the science and technology park, It also provides the basis for decision-making of park management.