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为了更好地了解煤层底板突水变权脆弱性评价模型的评价特点,通过评价效果图对比、典型单元格评价结果对比和综合评价值域的对比来进行变权模型评价效果的分析。同时为了定量地分析参数对评价结果的影响范围和影响程度,运用局部灵敏度分析法对调权参数和主控因素参数进行了灵敏度分析。结果表明:脆弱性指数的变化与调权参数a2,a3、含水层水压、含水层富水性、断层规模指数、断层褶皱分布和断层交点与端点的变化成正相关关系,与调权参数c、有效隔水层等效厚度和矿压破坏带下脆性岩厚度成负相关关系;调权参数在变幅±5%的拐点之后灵敏度系数发生显著的改变;调权参数a1,a2及有效隔水层等效厚度和含水层水压对脆弱性指数变化影响较大。
In order to better understand the evaluation characteristics of vulnerability assessment model of water inrush vulnerability in coal seam floor, the effect of variable weight model evaluation was analyzed by comparing the results of contrast map, the comparison of typical cell evaluation results and the comprehensive evaluation value range. At the same time, in order to quantitatively analyze the influence range and influence degree of the parameters on the evaluation results, the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the right-of-way control and the main control factors is carried out by using the local sensitivity analysis method. The results show that the change of the vulnerability index has a positive correlation with the parameters a2 and a3, the water pressure of the aquifer, the water-bearing capacity of the aquifer, the scale index of the fault, the distribution of the fault fold and the change of the intersection and the endpoint. The effective thickness of the effective aquifer is negatively correlated with the brittle rock thickness under the mine pressure failure zone; the sensitivity coefficient of the righting weight parameter changes significantly after the inflection point of ± 5% of the amplitude; the parameters a1, a2 and effective water diversion The equivalent thickness of layer and water pressure of aquifer have great influence on the change of vulnerability index.